Should you open Pokémon packs or buy singles?
By Britton Jewell · Last updated
Short answer: if you want a specific card, buy the single. We ran the numbers on the Mega Evolution set. Pulling one particular Special Illustration Rare takes about 1,010 packs on average, which is around $4,535 at Pokémon Center's price. The priciest one goes for about $160. Even the average pack holds less value than it costs. Open packs if you enjoy opening them, and buy singles for the cards you want.
Who wrote this: Britton Jewell, a collectibles reseller who runs BuyHoldCollect. Pull rates come from TCGplayer's count of more than 5,000 packs, card prices from PriceCharting, and pack prices from Pokémon Center (all checked ). More about us.
How we worked it out
We used Mega Evolution, the set that came out in September 2025, because it has the best public numbers. The Pokémon Company doesn't publish pull rates, so TCGplayer opened more than 5,000 packs and counted how often each rarity showed up. The set has 188 cards. For each rarity, we split TCGplayer's rate evenly across the cards of that rarity. Pokémon doesn't say whether some cards in a rarity are rarer than others, so treat these as averages.
How many packs it takes to pull one card
| Card type (cards in set) | Packs for one specific card | Cost at $4.49 a pack | Priciest card of that type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare (10) | 48 | $215 | $2 |
| Illustration Rare (22) | 202 | $907 | $19 |
| Ultra Rare (22) | 267 | $1,200 | $19 |
| Special Illustration Rare (10) | 1,010 | $4,535 | $160 |
| Mega Hyper Rare (2) | 2,520 | $11,315 | $215 |
The priciest cards are Mega Gardevoir ex (Special Illustration Rare, #178) at $159.95 and Mega Lucario ex (Mega Hyper Rare, #188) at $214.69, PriceCharting's ungraded prices. Every card in the set costs less to buy outright than to pull, and for the rarest ones the gap is more than 25 times. If you pay market price for packs, about $9 each, the pack column roughly doubles.
This is also why chase cards cost what they do. Someone opened hundreds or thousands of packs to find each one.
What an average pack is worth
Here's the average value of the rare cards in a pack, using TCGplayer's rates and the average PriceCharting price for each rarity:
| Card type | Share of packs | Average price | Value per pack |
|---|---|---|---|
| Double Rare | 20.9% | $1.74 | $0.36 |
| Ultra Rare | 8.2% | $4.96 | $0.41 |
| Illustration Rare | 10.9% | $6.61 | $0.72 |
| Special Illustration Rare | 1.0% | $71.68 | $0.71 |
| Mega Hyper Rare | 1 in 1,260 | $185.18 | $0.15 |
| Total | $2.35 |
The rest of the pack is bulk. Knight and Day Games, a card shop that publishes its rates, pays $8 cash per 1,000 unsorted Mega Evolution cards, or store credit of a penny each for commons and uncommons and 4 cents for holos and reverse holos. That adds about 5 to 15 cents a pack.
So an average pack holds under $2.50 in cards against a $4.49 price, and you'd keep less than that after selling fees and shipping. The average is also lopsided. More than a third of that $2.35 comes from the roughly 1 pack in 100 with a Special Illustration Rare or Mega Hyper Rare, and TCGplayer found an Illustration Rare, Ultra Rare or anything rarer in only about 1 pack in 5.
Booster box, bundle or loose packs?
At Pokémon Center, the price per pack doesn't change with the size of the box: a single sleeved pack is $4.49, a 6-pack booster bundle is $26.94 and a 36-pack booster display is $161.64, all $4.49 a pack. An Elite Trainer Box lists at $49.99 for 9 packs per TCGplayer, about $5.55 a pack, because you're also paying for sleeves, dice and the box. We haven't found anything from Pokémon saying packs from a box pull better than loose packs.
The catch is getting them at those prices. New sets sell out at Pokémon Center fast; every one of those listings was sold out when we checked. On the market, PriceCharting had a sealed Mega Evolution pack at $9.14 and a booster box at $308.87, about $8.58 a pack. For why that happens, see why is everything sold out?
When opening packs makes sense
- You enjoy opening them. That's the part you're paying for, the same as any other hobby spending.
- You want a pile of cards from the set and don't care which ones. Commons and uncommons come along with every pack.
- You set a budget first. The math above says you'll get back less than you spend on average.
Buying singles makes sense the rest of the time: when there's a card you want, when you're finishing a set, or when you'd be disappointed by a pack without a hit. For the legal side and the odds on breaks and digital packs, see is opening Pokémon packs gambling? For where the money in Pokémon cards does come from, see how do people make money with Pokémon cards? If you're thinking about grading what you pull, see is it worth grading Pokémon cards?
Quick answers
Should you open Pokémon packs or buy singles?
If you want a specific card, buy the single. In the Mega Evolution set, pulling one specific Special Illustration Rare takes about 1,010 packs on average, around $4,535 at Pokémon Center's $4.49 a pack. The priciest one went for about $160 on October 24, 2026. Open packs if you enjoy opening them.
Is opening Pokémon packs profitable?
Not on average. Using TCGplayer's pull rates and October 2026 prices, the rare cards in a Mega Evolution pack were worth about $2.35 on average, and the rest of the pack sells as bulk for about a penny a card. The pack costs $4.49 at Pokémon Center and about $9 on the market.
How many packs does it take to pull a specific Pokémon card?
In Mega Evolution, about 48 packs for a specific Double Rare, 202 for an Illustration Rare, 267 for an Ultra Rare, 1,010 for a Special Illustration Rare and 2,520 for a Mega Hyper Rare. That assumes every card of the same rarity is equally likely, since Pokémon doesn't publish its odds.
Is it cheaper to buy a booster box or single packs?
At Pokémon Center the price per pack is the same: $4.49 whether you buy one pack, a 6-pack bundle or a 36-pack box. Elite Trainer Boxes cost more per pack, about $5.55 at the $49.99 list price for 9 packs, because they include sleeves and other extras.
How much are bulk Pokémon cards worth?
About a penny each. Knight and Day Games, a card shop, pays $8 cash per 1,000 unsorted Scarlet & Violet or Mega Evolution cards. If you sort them, it pays store credit of 1 cent each for commons and uncommons and 4 cents for holos and reverse holos.
New to terms like chase or pull rate? See our collector and reseller glossary.
Related: Is opening Pokémon packs gambling? · Are GameStop Power Packs worth it? · Why is everything sold out? · Free preorder tracker
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Prices and pull rates change, and newer sets have different odds. This page is general information, not financial advice.