Is that Black Friday toy deal real? How to check
By Britton Jewell · Last updated
Short answer: usually the price is real, but often it isn't special. Plenty of toys show a percent-off badge on Black Friday because that's what they sell for every day, and some hit their lowest price weeks before or after. Before you buy, look at what the discount is measured against, pull up the toy's price history in Keepa or CamelCamelCamel, and check one or two other stores. If you buy at Target or Best Buy, keep watching: both will refund their own later price drops for a while.
Who wrote this: Britton Jewell, a collectibles reseller who runs BuyHoldCollect. Yes, we sell toys. We'll still tell you when a deal isn't one. More about us. We don't sell or hold either set in the examples below.
What the crossed-out price is measured against
Amazon explains its crossed-out prices on its strike-through pricing page:
- List Price is the manufacturer's suggested retail price (MSRP). Amazon only shows it if customers bought the item on Amazon, or other retailers offered it, at or above that price in the past 90 days (180 for seasonal items).
- Typical Price is the median price customers paid on Amazon over the past 90 days, leaving out limited-time promotions.
- Lowest price in 30 days means the current price is at or below the lowest featured offer on Amazon in that window.
None of these tell you whether the price is lower than usual. A toy can sell below its List Price every day for two years, and the badge will still say 20% off. That's what happened in Example 1 below.
Other stores' "was" and "reg" prices are their own claims. The FTC's guide on former-price comparisons says a "was" price should be one the item was actually offered at "on a regular basis for a reasonably substantial period of time." When the UK consumer group Which? checked 227 Black Friday 2023 deals, the higher "was" price had been in place less than half the time for six in 10 of them. Those were appliances and electronics in the UK, but the same check works on toys.
Check the price history
Paste the Amazon link into Keepa or CamelCamelCamel. Both are free to look up. Find last year's Black Friday on the chart, and this year's October sales (Amazon's Prime Big Deal Days ran October 6–7, 2026), and compare. For how to read the lines, gaps and dotted stretches, see how to read a toy's price chart. Two real examples (charts as of ):
Example 1: 20% off every day
Amazon's listing shows this set at $47.95 with "-20%" and a $59.99 List Price crossed out. The 20% is real: LEGO's own store charges $59.99. But Amazon has sold it for $47.95–47.99 almost every day since at least April 2024, including both Black Fridays. If this one's on your list, you don't need to wait for a sale. You also don't need to rush when the deal badge shows up.
Example 2: the best price came after Black Friday
- On Black Friday 2025 (November 28), Amazon had it at $109.95, full price. Third-party sellers had it for about $89.
- On December 12, Amazon cut it to $65.99, 40% off, and held that price until December 23.
- Then it went back to full price until April 2026. Since mid-September 2026 it's been about $62.
Anyone who bought on Black Friday paid about $23–44 more than they needed to. One toy's chart doesn't predict another's, so look up each one before you buy.
Compare stores, and do the math on bundle deals
Check the maker's own store (LEGO.com, Hasbro Pulse, Mattel Creations) and one or two big retailers. If Amazon's "deal" matches what everyone else charges, it's the going price. Make sure you're comparing the same seller, too: on Amazon, check "Sold by" next to the Add to Cart button. A third-party seller can price the same toy differently from Amazon itself, higher or lower, as Example 2 shows.
Collector figures go on sale for Black Friday too. In our experience, lines like Marvel Legends, WWE and Star Wars Black Series get discounted at Amazon, BBTS, Walmart, Best Buy and other stores, and the discounted figures can sell out quickly. When another big store cuts its price, Amazon usually lowers its own to match.
Some specialty stores run bundle deals instead. On Black Friday 2025, Entertainment Earth ran buy one, get one 50% off on in-stock action figures, with free shipping over $79 (backorders didn't count). The half-off applies to the cheaper item, so two $25 figures cost $37.50, which is 25% off each. A $40 figure plus a $20 one comes to $50, or about 17% off. Compare that per-figure price, not the "50%."
If the price drops after you buy
Prices can keep moving into December, as Example 2 shows. Two big stores will refund the difference if their own price drops, for a while.
| Store | Refunds its own later price drop? | Matches competitors? |
|---|---|---|
| Target | Yes, within 14 days of purchase, for an identical item at Target.com or your local store (Target) | No. The policy only covers Target's own prices. |
| Best Buy | Yes, during the return and exchange period (Best Buy) | Yes for its listed competitors, but not from the Thursday before Thanksgiving through the Monday after (November 19–30, 2026), and not items marked as Black Friday pricing. |
| Walmart.com | No (Walmart) | No |
| Amazon | We couldn't find a policy for either in Amazon's help pages. | |
Both Target and Best Buy exclude clearance items, and Best Buy excludes Marketplace sellers. Policies as of ; stores change them around the holidays, so check the linked page before you count on it.
Buy now or wait?
- Is the price at or near the lowest point on the chart? Then it's a good price, Black Friday or not.
- Is it the same price as October? There's no rush, unless the toy is selling out. Popular gift toys can sell out in December (see why some figures sell out), and after that, prices usually go up.
- A collector figure at a good Black Friday price? Don't wait long. Discounted figures can sell out quickly.
- Found it cheaper at Walmart or Best Buy but want to buy on Amazon? Check Amazon again, since it often lowers its price to match. If it hasn't, buy where the price is.
- Buying at Target or Best Buy? Buy when the price is good, then check again before the refund window closes.
- Not sure? Set a free price alert in Keepa or CamelCamelCamel at the most you'd pay.
- Buying a preorder on Black Friday? A sale price on a preorder isn't always the price you'll pay; see when preorders get charged and whether the store locks in the price.
Quick answers
Are Black Friday toy deals real?
Most are real prices, but many aren't special ones. A toy can show 20% off on Black Friday because that's its everyday price, and some toys hit their lowest price weeks before or after. Check the toy's price history in Keepa or CamelCamelCamel before you buy.
Is Black Friday the cheapest time to buy toys?
Sometimes, not always. Adobe measured online toy discounts peaking at 29.6% off list price in the 2025 holiday season, but individual toys vary. One LEGO set we tracked was full price on Black Friday 2025 and 40% off two weeks later.
What does List Price mean on an Amazon deal?
Amazon says the List Price is the manufacturer's suggested retail price. A discount from it can be real and still be the price Amazon charges every day. The Typical Price is the median price customers paid on Amazon over the past 90 days, leaving out limited-time promotions.
Will a store refund the difference if a toy's price drops after Black Friday?
At some stores. Target adjusts to its own lower price within 14 days of purchase, and Best Buy matches its own lower price during the return period. Walmart.com says it doesn't adjust for later price drops, and we couldn't find a price-drop policy in Amazon's help pages.
New to terms like MSRP or third-party seller? See our collector and reseller glossary.
Related: Why is this toy so expensive? · Why do some figures sell out and others peg-warm? · How do tariffs affect toy prices? · When do preorders get charged?
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Prices and policies change. This page is general information, not financial advice. Adobe's 2025 toy discount figure is from its holiday season report. Chart images are from Keepa, captured October 20, 2026; BuyHoldCollect isn't affiliated with Keepa or LEGO.